Oscar Predictions 2013 – By Kamran Jawaid and Farheen Jawaid

This is the unedited copy of our Annual Oscar Predictions, published 24 February 2013, in Images on Sunday, Dawn Newspaper.

 OscarPredictions2013

Oscar Punditry – Now in its 8th Year

By Mohammad Kamran Jawaid and Farheen Jawaid

This is our 8th year predicting the Academy Awards (a trend we are exclusive to introduce), and we have one thing to say about this year’s race: it’s going to be one tough cookie.

Unlike last year’s Oscar predictions, where we collectively aced 19 of 22 total predictions, this year’s ballot has a misleading superficiality to it. Closer pondering, particularly when tallying last minute change of trends, invites a lot of second guessing; some of it is hazardous to one’s initial speculation.

As it happens, people try to calculate 6000 Academy member’s choices by broad-stroking the preceding guild awards. The technique works, and then it doesn’t (of 12,000 Writers Guild members, only 6 percent are Academy members).

A film’s initial reaction fluctuates when people influence preferences and bankable history – especially in certain categories and stages (for example: a Steven Spielberg film has never produced a “Best” actor in any category; a trend bound to break at least once this year). Common sense predictions can also backfire sometimes (eg: Tony Kushner, writer of Lincoln was bested by first time writer Chris Terrio of Argo at the Writers Guild Awards; a possible upset can happen at the Oscars presentation).

Our predictions, after watching all of the nominated films in (almost) all major categories, cover the best bet to pick up the Oscar (Bet), our own predilection and tilt (MKJ is for Mohammad Kamran Jawaid, and FJ is for Farheen Jawaid), possible Upsets (Upset) and those with long odds (Long Shot). In many cases these labels will overlap.

Argo, a definite (and personal) favorite with a grand overall Award season winning streak, and 7 nominations, is set for Best Picture, esp. because Ben Affleck, the winner of the Directors Guild Award, does not have an Oscar nod. Lincoln, with 12 nominations will win some (the bank is Daniel Day-Lewis). So will Ang Lee’s The Life of Pi, which has 11 nods – including Best Visual Effects. Les Miserables and Silver Lining Playbook, share 8 nods each, and will miss out on many, regardless of their intense marketing campaigns. Zero Dark Thirty, with 7 nods, is suffering from exhaustion, because people, after a lot of initial hullaballoo, have realized the film’s inherent problems; however, it will still ace some by our estimates.

The director’s race is divided between Spielberg and Ang Lee. The former is a heavy favorite with his last win in 1998 for Saving Private Ryan. The latter secured a win in 2006 for Brokeback Mountain. Michael Haneke, an Academy favorite, has never won an Oscar (he is set to pick up on Foreign Film for Amour).

Oscillations are more prominent in some of the technical categories (people are usually confused about Sound Mixing and Sound Editing). A few ripples are unavoidable in the performing (Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor) and writing nods (Original Screenplay). Like we said, this is going to be one tough cookie.

As a rule, we do not cover the Short Films, however, this year, we were fortunate enough to watch the nominees in the Short Film: Animated category. Unfortunately we were not so lucky with the Best Documentary nominees, our analysis, therefore, is based on external punditry; the best we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best.

Regardless of the outcome, tomorrow is going to be fun. Keep this guide handy, that’s all we’re gonna say.

Argo (4)

PICTURE

Unanimous: Argo; Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney

Upset: Lincoln; Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy

Long Shot: Life of Pi; Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark

ACTOR

Unanimous: Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln

Lincoln (1)

ACTRESS

Bet: Jessica Chastain; Zero Dark Thirty

MKJ/FJ: Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook

Upset: Emmanuelle Riva; Amour

ACTOR – SUPPORTING

Bet: Tommy Lee Jones; Lincoln

MKJ: Philip Seymour Hoffman; The Master

FJ/Upset: Christoph Waltz; Django Unchained

Long Shot: Robert De Niro; Silver Linings Playbook

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

ACTRESS – SUPPORTING

Unanimous: Anne Hathaway; Les Misérables

Upset: Sally Field; Lincoln

Long Shot: Helen Hunt; The Sessions

DIRECTOR

Unanimous: Steven Spielberg; Lincoln

Upset: Ang Lee; Life of Pi

SCREENPLAY – ORIGINAL

Bet: Zero Dark Thirty; Mark Boal

Les Miserables (1)

MKJ/FJ: Django Unchained; Quentin Tarantino

Upset: Amour; Michael Haneke

SCREENPLAY – ADAPTED

Unanimous: Lincoln; Tony Kushner

Upset: Argo; Chris Terrio

ANIMATED FEATURE

Unanimous: Wreck-It Ralph; Rich Moore

"WRECK-IT RALPH"   (L-R) RALPH and VANELLOPE VON SCHWEETZ in the video game world of Sugar Rush. ©2012 Disney. All Rights Reserved.Upset: Brave; Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman

Long Shot: Frankenweenie; Tim Burton

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Unanimous: Amour (Austria)

Long Shot: A Royal Affair (Denmark)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Amour, Emmanulle RivaBet: Life of Pi; Claudio Miranda

MKJ/FJ: Skyfall; Roger Deakins

EDITING

Bet: Argo; William Goldenberg

FJ/MKJ: Zero Dark Thirty; William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bet/FJ: Anna Karenina; Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

1138856 - Django UnchainedMKJ: Life of Pi; David Gropman, Anna Pinnock

Upset: Les Misérables; Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson

Long Shot: Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson

COSTUME DESIGN

Unanimous: Anna Karenina; Jacqueline Durran

Upset: Les Misérables; Paco Delgado

Long Shots: Lincoln; Joanna Johnston and Mirror Mirror; Eiko Ishioka

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Life of Pi (7)Bet: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane

MKJ: Les Misérables; Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell

FJ: Hitchcock; Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel

ORIGINAL SCORE

Unanimous: Life of Pi; Mychael Danna

Upset: Lincoln; John Williams

ORIGINAL SONG

Unanimous: "Skyfall"; Skyfall; Adele, Paul Epworth

PapermanUpset: "Pi’s Lullaby"; Life of Pi; Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree

Long Shot: "Suddenly"; Les Misérables; Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer

SOUND MIXING

Bet: Les Misérables; Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes

MKJ: Life of Pi; Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin

FJ: Skyfall; Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson

SOUND EDITING

skyfall_image2Bet: Zero Dark Thirty; Paul N.J. Ottosson

MKJ: Life of Pi; Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton

FJ: Skyfall; Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker

Upset: Argo; Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn

VISUAL EFFECTS

Unanimous: Life of Pi; Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott

(Very) Long Shot: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White

DOCUMENTARY

As we were not able to see the documentaries this year, our prediction is limited to trending speculation.

Zero Dark Thirty - Jessica-Chastain (1)Bet: Searching for Sugar Man; Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn

Upset: How to Survive a Plague; David France, Howard Gertler

SHORT FILM: ANIMATED

Unanimous: Paperman; John Kahrs

Upset: Adam and Dog; Minkyu Lee

Long Shot: The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare; David Silverman

The link to the published version will be placed here later.

The published version is at: http://dawn.com/2013/02/24/oscar-prediction-written-in-the-stars/.

And it looks like this:

24-02-2013-OscarPredictionsFull

24-02-2013-OscarPredictions (Reset)

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