Animadversion: Kamran Jawaid and Farheen Jawaid Predict 2010’s Oscar Winners

below is the unedited version of our Oscar Predictions, published in iMAGES on the 7th of March 2010

Oscar Predictions 2010

And Oscars Horoscope for 2010 Is…

By Mohammad Kamran Jawaid and Farheen Jawaid

…Pretty straightforward, actually. With Oscar about 18 – or 21 – hours away (depending on when you’re reading this), iMAGES maintains its longstanding, exclusive, tradition of predicting this year’s Academy Awards. Forecasting the Oscars-race depends on multiple factors, such as: independent guild awards (the Writers Guild – WGA – and the Producers Guild – PGA, two industry awards that significantly affect the race); who won what, where; where the industry leans now, as opposed to six months before, when there were fewer last minute entries, and finally, the quota of independent, state-wise critics awards. Sandwiched somewhere in between is the actual Oscar worthiness of the movie.

Our predictions go like this: Counting down the categories, we (Farheen Jawaid (FJ) and Kamran Jawaid (MKJ)) give our standalone predictions on who we would like to see win tomorrow. We also try to fine-tune into the minds of some 6000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the body that gives out the Academy Awards, and predict who will win the Oscars. Finally we spotlight one (and sometimes two) dark horse contenders.

Keep this copy as a check-list for tomorrow (we’re usually pretty good at our predictions). You’ll be amazed. And now, on with the show:

Actress Supporting

Will Win: Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

MKJ & FJ: Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Dark Horse: None.

Prediction: It was hard seeing Mo’Nique’s twisted, broken mother on the edge as a contender until Precious’ climatic performance. With a BAFTA (the British equivalent of an Academy Award), a Golden Globe, a Critics Choice and a SAG (Screen Actors Guild) award – a major game changer – already on her showcase, there’s just enough room for an Oscar.

Actor Supporting

Will Win: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

MKJ & FJ: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Dark Horse: None

Prediction: Clean sweeping about every award ceremony (BAFTA, Globes, SAG, Critics Choice and every other regional critics award, including a Best Actor at Cannes) Christoph Waltz’s dazzling Jew-hunting multi-lingual Nazi Col. Hans Landa is a no-contest winner.

Leading Actor

Will Win: Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

MKJ & FJ: Jeff Bridges

Dark Horse: George Clooney – Up in the Air

Prediction: There are a thousand ways Bad Blake from Crazy Heart could have been wronged on-screen, but Jeff Bridges spot-on performance as a burned out 57 year old country singer is his key to this year’s Oscars. His only contest is George Clooney from Up in the Air, who already has a Best Supporting Oscar for Syriana. The industry loves Jeff Bridges (and he may not have another career changing role like this). This is his year.

Leading Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

MKJ: Carey Mulligan – An Education

FJ: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Dark Horse: Carey Mulligan – An Education

Prediction: Sandra Bullock is a clear favorite with wins at the Globes and the SAG (she is tied at the Critics Choice Award with Meryl Streep, for Julie & Julia). Her case is the same as Julia Roberts: a box-office queen treasured by the industry gets a nomination and wins an Oscar; not necessarily for her best performance (Julia Roberts won for Erin Brockovich). Moreover, two of her fellow nominees are Oscar winners (Meryl Streep has 16 Oscar noms and 3 wins, Helen Mirren won Best Actress 3 years back for The Queen). Carey Mulligan has a BAFTA (Ms. Bullock wasn’t nominated there) and rings in as an improbable upset.

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air

MKJ & FJ: Up in the Air

Dark Horse: None

Prediction: Like most predicted winners in many categories this year Up in the Air has been a dominant candidate in all previous awards (BAFTA, Globes, Critics Choice) for its uncomplicated and hard-wearing screenplay. It recently won at the Writers Guild Award (WGA), which sets it up for a sure-shot Oscar win.

Original Screenplay

Will Win: Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker

MKJ & FJ: Quentin Tarantin – Inglourious Basterds

Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantin – Inglourious Basterds

Prediction: It’s a tough match. At one end is Inglourious Basterds, a fictionalized off-center, revenge-strewn World War II fable about Nazi-scalping which turns the events of the war 360-degrees (traditionalist Oscar voters sometimes disagree on fictionalizing harsh events). At the other end is The Hurt Locker, a stark drama about Bomb-specialists in Iraq which moves without a conventional screen-story. The Globes only offered one Screenplay category where Up in the Air won over Basterds and this shakes-up the game somewhat. Mark Boal’s recent win at the WGA upsets what would otherwise have been a win-win situation for Quentin Tarantino’s Basterds.

Director

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

MKJ & FJ: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

Dark Horses: James Cameron for Avatar or Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow and Hurt Locker have come a long way since the Festival Season, and a recent win at Directors Guild Award (a clear Oscar indication), a BAFTA, 9 regional critics’ awards and a Critics Choice award. James Cameron’s won once for his sprawling epic at the Golden Globes (he was shocked at his win), while Jason Reitman has a handful of awards (few film festivals and critics awards) and will win an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, so that automatically cancels his shot in the Directors category. And anyways, Cameron has an Oscar for Titanic.

Picture:

Will Win: Avatar

MKJ: Avatar

FJ: The Hurt Locker

Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker

Prediction: New game changing voting rules and 8 other Best Picture candidates worry Avatar and The Hurt Locker the least. Avatar has massive box-office (to date it made $2.4 Billion). The Hurt Locker, didn’t break even (made for $15 million, its worldwide total was a disastrous $18 million). The Oscars love a big-picture that devastates box-office. Victor Fleming, James Cameron and Peter Jackson did it before with Gone with the Wind ($400 million worldwide in 1939. Its U.S. total, $198 million, adjusted to inflation is $1.5 Billion), Titanic ($1.8 Billion) and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King ($1.1 Billion). All three won Best Pictures. Add this with the recent controversy regarding Hurt Locker’s producer, and you’ve got Avatar as Best Picture. Sometimes it’s not a question of how good a picture is. It’s about how big it is. We would love The Hurt Locker to win this one.

Quickie Predictions:

Original Score

Will Win: Up

MKJ & FJ: Up

Dark Horse: Avatar or The Hurt Locker (they will cancel each other)

Original Song

Will Win: "The Weary Kind” Theme from Crazy Heart

MKJ & FJ: “The Weary Kind”, Crazy Heart

Dark Horses: “Almost There”, The Princess and the Frog; “Take it All”, Nine.

Documentary

Will Win: The Cove

MKJ & FJ: The Cove

Dark Horses: The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers; Which Way Home

Animated Feature

Will Win: Up

MKJ & FJ: Up

Dark Horse: The Princess and the Frog (to support the recently-revived traditional animated industry, and because it echoes – if hollowly – the traditions and clichés of a Disney classic)

Foreign Film

Will Win: The White Ribbon

MKJ: Ajami

FJ: The White Ribbon

Dark Horse: Ajami

Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar

MKJ & FJ: Avatar

Dark Horse: District 9 (hypothetically speaking, if Avatar never existed).

Editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

MKJ & FJ: The Hurt Locker

Dark Horse: Avatar

Cinematography

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

MKJ & FJ: The Hurt Locker

Dark Horses: The White Ribbon (it won the American Society of Cinematographers award last Sunday) or Avatar (because of its technical brilliance).

The articles printed version can be found at:

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/images/oscars-horoscope-2010-730

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5 thoughts on “Animadversion: Kamran Jawaid and Farheen Jawaid Predict 2010’s Oscar Winners”

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